WHEN THE TWIN-PEAK BUBBLES OF SECURITIES AND REAL ESTATE POPPED, A THIRD BUBBLE WAS HISSING AIR.
THE EMPLOYMENT BUBBLE.
YES.
EMPLOYMENT WAS A BUBBLE.
DURING THE HELIUM YEARS, JOBS WERE EVERYWHERE.
WHILE THE WORKFORCE WAS PUNCHING IN,
UNEMPLOYMENT WAS BASKING AROUND ITS HISTORIC 5%.
NOW, DEPENDING UPON THE FUZZYNESS OF ONE’S ALGORITHM,
UNEMPLOYMENT RANGES FROM 9% TO 17%.
AMERICA WAITS FOR THE RETURN OF OUR ‘NORMAL’ UNEMPLOYMENT AVERAGE.
IT WON’T BE BACK.
THE JOBS ARE GONE.
THE PRESENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS NOT A TEMPORARY MALADY WAITING FOR A CYCLICAL CORRECTION.
IT'S THE NEW NORMAL, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS.
JOBS ARE NOT BECOMING OBSOLETE, BUT THEY’RE ON THE ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST.
HOW DID IT HAPPEN?
THE STOCK MARKET HAS REBOUNDED FROM THE “BIG BANG” LARGLY BECAUSE CORPORATIONS DEFENSIVLY DOWNSIZED THEIR PAY ROLLS.
THEY ASSIGNED THEIR JOBS TO FEWER AND MORE INSECURE WORKERS.
WHEREVER POSSIBLE, THEY PURCHASED MACHINES AND TECHNOLOGY WHICH REPLACED PEOPLE.
AFTER ALL, MACHINES NEEDED NO VACATIONS, PENSIONS OR HEALTH CARE.
THEY CONTINUED TRANSFERING EXPORTABLE JOBS TO LOW-WAGE PLACES.
CONSUMERS BOUGHT THE IMPORTS; A FAUSTIAN JOBS FOR DISCOUNTS BARGAIN.
PRODUCTIVITY SOARED.
BOARD ROOMS DISCOVERED THAT THEY DID JUST FINE WITH OFFSHORE LABOR AND A SLIMMER DOMESTIC WORKFORCE.
THERE WAS NO CONCERN FOR THE UNEMPLOYMENT LINE, JUST THE BOTTOM LINE.
SOME LABOR-INTENSIVE JOBS COULDN’T BE EXPORTED, SO, LOW-WAGE WORKERS WERE IMPORTED BECAUSE, ALTHOUGH AMERICA STILL HAD SHOVEL READY JOBS, AMERICANS WERE NOT READY TO PICK UP SHOVELS.
AND, THE VERY MECHANIZATION AND TECHNOLOGY WHICH MAKES OUR LIVES EASIER, MAKES IT EASIER TO ELIMINATE WORKERS,
FROM EZ-PASS TO NAIL GUNS.
FROM TRAVELOCITY TO BAR CODES.
THERE WILL BE NO GOING BACK.
9 comments:
Sad, but true. We need to develop new industries. It's a wake up call and we no have time to hit the snooze button.
I disagree
Tens of millions of jobs can be created from just a few great ideas. Seve Jobs and Bill Gates used the incrediable infrastructure this country offers to change the world. If we unleash the American spirit, great things will come of it. The problem however is that our shortsighted "leaders" have spent trillons for votes and now those ridiculous promises are like a lead weight which is keeping us crawling instead of soaring.
Have you considered the possibility that there is a bubble bubble?
leon,
new industries would help, as long as we can keep ourselves competitive. not easy
dean
tens of millions might be an optimistic number.
twitter, for example, came aboard recently and has created jobs. the speculation is that it may employ up to 3,000 within a few years.
so, yes, jobs are being created, but quite often the new creation eliminates existing jobs.
the question is...has microsoft or the ipad created more jobs than they eliminated?
many inventions are zero-sum job creators.
as for the incredible infrastructure...we really have to work on making it my credible....it's in trouble.
josh
i understand how you got your name...but...how did they know when you were just a newborn?
The problem with people who write about cybernetics, even good, smart people like Bruce, is they aren’t very reliable with regard to projecting into the future. I noticed, for example, after eating my mother-in-law’s chicken fricassee for more than 15 years that I was getting fewer and fewer of those delicious little salty meatballs. I plugged the number of meatballs in my mother-in-law’s chicken fricassee over time, did a regression analysis and saw the graph of the inevitable, unbreakable trend. My best projection was that by 2020 I would need to eat 4 chicken fricassee meals before I got even one meatball. Then, I DID something. I told the old bag that I really liked her little meatballs. Now I get lots and lots of meatballs in my chicken fricassee. See? You have to do something to change the trend. We ain’t doing anything.
claude,
yes. i know you want me to make the old fricken chickassee reference.
i won't.
as to the 5%...we shall seer, i mean see.
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